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This is a guide to the main points relating to the Brexit situation by Anthony Foley, Senior Lecturer in Economics, DCU Business School.

 1. The UK has voted to leave the EU. This necessitates the establishment of a new set of rules governing movement of goods, services, capital and people between the UK and the rest of the EU. In addition it will affect a wide range of other issues e.g. Irish student access to UK universities and fees. The Brexit vote was exclusively about staying or leaving; there was no vote on alternative post-Brexit regimes. The Brexit side does not have a unified view on what should replace the EU membership rules. The EU side is also weak on the details of a post membership situation.

2. The new set of economic relationship rules are unknown and uncertain and will derive from negotiations between the EU as a whole and the UK. There is no guarantee that the negotiations will be friendly and designed to minimise economic disruption. They may be grudging and spiteful. One view is that the EU will offer a poor deal on economic relations to discourage other member states from leaving.

3. The exit timescale is related to Article 50 of the Treaty. A member which  decides to leave notifies the European Council of its intent. The European Council then initiates negotiation on the withdrawal arrangements and the future relationship with the EU. This agreement will be arrived at by the qualified majority system at the Council and with the consent of the European Parliament.

4. The exiting state will cease to be an EU member from the date of entry into force of the agreement  (as negotiated) or failing that, two years after the notification of the intention to leave. However, the European Council, acting unanimously, in agreement with the exiting state can extend the period beyond 2 years (with no time limit)

5. The UK government has not yet notified the European Council. The UK prime minister is resigning with effect from October and has stated that it should be the responsibility of his successor to notify the European Council. Some EU senior officials have argued that the UK should notify immediately to speed up the process but there is no legal obligation for the notification to come within a specific time period and this demand has been dropped. It could well be the case that the notification will be a long time coming, even after October, (or maybe never, if circumstances arise that persuade the UK government and parliament to ignore or rerun the referendum).

6. There is enormous uncertainty about the detail of a post exit situation, there is uncertainty about what the UK government will want (and be willing to concede ), there is uncertainty about the negotiating position of the EU (punish the UK or minimise changes in the economic relations), there is uncertainty about the time scale of the process and finally there is great uncertainty about the economic effects of whatever is agreed.

7. The eventual deal will probably have to be approved by the UK parliament and currently the House of Commons is anti-Brexit by a large majority. The final deal may well fall far short of what the Brexit supporters currently expect.

8. The EU has a high degree of economic integration and the Single Market allows the free (or nearly free) mobility of goods, services, capital and labour. The EU and the Brexit side are in favour of free trade. The Brexit side would happily accept the three freedoms of goods, services and capital but are strongly against free movement of labour and people. It is unlikely that the EU would allow continuing full access to the single market for goods, services and capital without labour freedom. This is likely to be the main sticking point in negotiations on a new economic relationship.

9. Membership of the European Economic Area has been identified as a possible post EU regime. Norway is currently in this position. But full membership of the EEA includes mobility of people and also a significant contribution to the EU budget. Alternatively the UK might relate to the EU in much the same way as does China, Russia or the USA at present. This would not include labour mobility but also includes much lower trade liberalisation in services including financial services which the UK does not want.

10. Brexit has two effects. It has generated enormous uncertainty as to future EU/UK economic rules of engagement. This has had a negative impact, and will have a continuing impact, on sterling, stock markets, investment decisions, consumer decisions and overall economic confidence. The second effect is that when the uncertainty is gone (which may be a long time away) the rules governing economic relationships will be different and this will affect business models, market access and transactions costs of UK related business. How different, depends on the details of the new agreement.

11. Brexit will worsen the UK economic performance in the immediate and short term. This will reduce its demand for imports which will hit Irish exporters. This will, in turn, reduce the Irish growth performance.

12. The new deal will be negotiated by the EU as an entity. While Ireland will have an input into the EU negotiating position (and it may be a strong input reflecting our particular political, social and economic relationship with the UK), the final deal will not necessarily reflect all of the Irish concerns. For example, the EU may not be willing to allow a common travel area between the UK and Ireland if the UK will not allow the same mobility of people from elsewhere in the EU).

13. Brexit has caused a large decline in Sterling which is likely to persist, to some extent, for some time if not long term. A much lower Sterling reduces the competitiveness of exports from Ireland to the UK and improves the competitiveness of imports from the UK. Consumers may benefit from the latter but Irish producers competing on the domestic market will lose out. A lower value of Sterling also reduces the attractiveness of Ireland for UK tourists. Fluctuations in the exchange rate with Sterling are not a new phenomenon for the Irish economy but the Brexit related decline is large and likely to be long lasting.

14. As noted in a previous blog a likely positive for the Irish economy is the reduction in the attractiveness of the UK as a centre for servicing the EU single market for both inward foreign investment and domestic UK enterprises because of the likely reduction in ease of access between the EU and the UK depending on the eventual deal. Ireland stands willing and able to give a new English-speaking home to these projects. On the negative side, the UK will have more freedom to improve its tax attractiveness for these projects. Ireland’s increased attractiveness as an English speaking business-friendly location relative to a UK which is outside the EU has substantial economic potential.

15. There is an overall short term negative economic impact arising from the uncertainty which will reduce Ireland’s growth performance. The decline in sterling is likely to be long lasting with its associated negative economic effects ranging from lower inward tourism, increased cross border shopping, reduced exports and increased imports. The ongoing uncertainty will reduce investor and consumer confidence. However, we are still a long way from tariffs, quotas, labour permits, visas, border controls and additional documentation in our economic relationships with the UK.

 

Anthony Foley is Senior Lecturer in Economics in DCU Business School, and lectures on the Executive MBA Programme.

DCU Business School MSDM (Masters in Digital Marketing) students recently went on the programme’s annual trip to India. Read their first blog – a day by day account of what to expect on the India trip.

day1

Day 1

Our first involved a lot if travel. We met at Dublin Airport and our first stop was Dubai. Here we grabbed a quick McDonalds and then it was onto Bangalore. We were staying at IIM Bangalore and we once we arrived we just did a quick change and then headed straight to brunch at Leela Palace. Traveling to Leela Palace was our first rickshaw experience and an experience it was! We arrived a Leela Palace for brunch which was fabulous. We headed back to IIM after brunch and had a tour of the campus. Then it was off to bed before a busy second day.

Day2

Day 2: Tour of Bangalore

Our second day involved a tour of Bangalore. Here we got to visit lots of tourist attractions like the Bull Temple, Lalbagh Botanical Gardens, the silk emporium and also the Bangalore Palace. The highlight of the day was seeing the monkeys in the botanical gardens and also Bangalore Palace. Later on that evening we got to attend a traditional Indian Concert on the campus and then headed off to dinner at Barbeque Nation.

Day3

Day 3: Republic Day/ Free Day

Our third day in Bangalore was Republic Day. This is a national Indian holiday and we were invited to a ceremony on campus in IIM to celebrate. This was a great experience. After this we headed into the city. As it was Republic there was lots of parades and festivities on. We headed to UB City Mall for something to eat and then went to Cubbn Park. This park had some amusements such as the tea cups and rollercoaster. We then headed off to the markets and bought endless scarfs and touristy bits. Dinner tonight was at Punjabi by Nature which was lovely and the cocktails were lovely.

Day4

Day 4: Trip to Mysore

Our fourth day we took a day trip to Mysore. This involved getting up very early – 6.30am. Our first stop was Tipu Sultan’s Summer Palace. This was a lovely palace on the way to Mysore. We then headed to Mysore Palace and this literally took our breathe away. It was stunning. We took a tour of the palace here and took lots of photos along the way. We also got to take an elephant ride. Next stop was some markets for some shopping. Here we all got to try on saree’s (which some of us ended up buying). We them got henna tattoos and headed for our last stop which was Chamundi Hill before we headed home.

Day5

Day 5: Industry Day

Day five in India was our Industry Day. Here we got to visit IBM Bangaore and also Christ University. In IBM we got to visit the data centre and also got a presentation on cloud computing. This was a great opportunity for us. We then headed for Christ University to attend the ‘Unlearn Digital Marketing’ conference. This was organised by the web marketing academy and was a great opportunity to network and meet some of the Indian students. We then headed out for dinner to Loft 38 with some of the lecturers and students from the web marketing academy.

Day6

Day 6

Our last day in Bangalore we had a workshop on doing business in India in IIM. This was very interesting and we got the opportunity to learn the differences between doing business in Ireland and in India. We then headed to commercial street to the markets for some last minute shopping. Up next was an industry visit to Wipro. This was a great experience and we all really enjoyed getting to visit the innovation centre. Here we got to see all the latest technologies. We then headed for dinner in Toscano in UB City Mall. After this we went to the Skybar at UB City Mall for a few drinks.

Day7

Day 7

Travel Home!

 Click here to learn more about carrying out a postgraduate degree in DCU Business School.

aussie blog awards 2014Congratulations to DCU Digital Marketing student Sonia Boyle, whose blog was nominated at the Aussie Blog Awards in the ‘Most Aussome Newcomer’ category!

Her.ie readers were asked to nominate a new online read, less than two years old, but that brings something special to the online space in the authors field. In the case of Sonia, her blog, Irish Food Goddess, is all about healthy gluten free home made food. Through the blog, she pens food posts dealing with the challenges of pairing gluten-free foods in imaginative and delicious ways.

A key element of the the Digital Marketing courses in DCU the development of practical skills through active and reflective learning. To become competent in digital marketing, applying the theory and ideas learnt in our classes is key. That’s why many of our students choose to create their own blog, through which they develop skills such as web design & development, content creation & dissemination and the mechanics of online communities.

Speaking about her experience on the course, Sonia says:

“I would highly recommend Digital Marketing in DCU Business School to anyone who wishes to bring their Digital Marketing Skills to the next level. Having graduated with a BA (Hons) in Media & Marketing and a Diploma in Desktop Publishing, a course in Digital seemed like the next logical step. The course was challenging, not for the faint hearted and all that you would expect from a University Postgraduate course, the work that was put in by each individual and group was evident in the many projects that were undertaken. One of which was to create a blog.

Having graduated, I am now putting the skills I have learned into practice in a real way, working in my role as Product Manager for Scope Healthcare. Being a Digital Marketing Specialist in Ireland means breaking the barrier between the old and new and connecting them in a strategic way. I am grateful that I had the opportunity to plan and run a number of digital marketing campaigns during my time at DCU and I am now applying those skills to my current role”.

On her key learnings during her time in DCU:

  • Educating yourself in something that you love is a critical to your success.
  • Constantly adding skills and retraining in Digital means that I am able to overcome any challenges I may face in my Marketing career and demonstrates that I have the ability to recognise where my skills need improving and act on it in order to perform better at my job.
  • Continuing to educate myself at a high level has made my skills more relevant and opened more doors for me in this challenging new Digital era in Ireland.

Pictured above are Sonia (second left) with host Vogue Williams (middle) and fellow nominees. 

If you are interested in studying Digital Marketing with us, just fill in the form below:

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